This post was in response to a student's comment that even Alan Greenspan does not seem to be too good at predicting the future.

I am sure that you are right, and I say that even though I am a big Greenspan fan. I think that people have this basic desire to do know the future and whether it is a fortune teller or an expert they are willing to pay money for predictions. If you remember a few years ago the predictions were that we would pay off the national debt by 2013. Within months the predictions changed to predictions of  never ending and increasingly large deficits.

 

While I would like to see a "good" proposal that includes private accounts for social security, all of the predictions about what happens in 2018 or 2042 have to be taken with a grain of salt. There are simply too many factors, which cannot be predicted between now and then. For example, so much will depend on technological advances that we have no way of predicting.  Fifteen or twenty years ago, did you expect to be going to school over the Internet?

 

I am not saying is that there is "no value" in thinking about the future and in thinking about general trends that are taking place. I think that this type of thinking is extremely helpful. But if someone tells you that they know what federal tax revenues are going to be 10 years from now, no matter how they dress it up, it is no more than a wild guess.